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Herstructurering van de retail: wat gaat gebeuren

In de jaren zestig en zeventig  veroorzaakten supermarkten een verandering bij de levensmiddelen winkels. Kleine zelfstandigen, zoals de bakker, groenteboer, melkboer en slager delfden massaal het onderspit en stopten hun bedrijfsvoering met een beëindigingsubsidie of een goed aanbod als afdelingschef bij de supermarkt. Non-food winkels hadden geen last van de nieuwe supermarkten. Nu vervult internet de rol van de supermarkt  en is het effect zichtbaar bij de non-food winkels, eigenlijk een herhaling van zetten. Internet, en het nieuwe koopgedrag van klanten leiden tot een herstructurering van de non-food retail.

  1. Klanten oriënteren zich op internet, in de eigen woonomgeving en beslissen dan over een aankoop, wordt het de webshop of toch een lokale winkel.
  2. Klanten worden experts door de informatie op internet en de sociale netwerken en weten vaak meer over producten dan de verkopers in de winkel.
  3. Winkels gaan sterk veranderen en zoeken een unieke propositie in het activeren van zintuigen. Muziek (audio spots), licht (spots en kleur), video schermen en geur worden belangrijk om beleving te creëren en de koopdrempel te verlagen.
  4. Winkels worden veel kleiner, doordat alleen artikelen met een hoge omzetsnelheid (de runners) in  voorraad zijn. Hierdoor worden de assortiments- en huisvestingskosten veel lager, maar worden winkels ook leuker.
  5. Internet wordt geïntegreerd in de winkel met terminals, terminal tafels en digital signage (narrowcasting). Hierdoor is het mogelijk om een onbeperkt aanbod te bieden aan  artikelen met een lage omzetsnelheid. Vertrouwen wordt de basis voor de winkel en de webshop. De economische basis van een winkel zal hierdoor vergroot worden.
  6. Andere afspraken met fabrikanten. Een vaste eindprijs in de markt, meer verantwoording over de voorraden (fabrikanten) en de garantie van snelle levering aan de winkel (kleine hoeveelheden soms binnen 1 uur). Het nieuwe distributiemodel voor de retail lijkt op gelijkvormige modellen in de luchtvaart, automatisering en telecom. De supply chain zal imploderen.
  7. Integratie van de smart phone en wi-fi binnen het koopgedrag en in de winkel. Klanten worden gevolgd door hun smart phone, ontvangen loyalty punten voor hun gedrag in de winkel en zijn direct benaderbaar. Tracking en tracing wordt mogelijk door sensoring, wi-fi en de smartphone. RFID en NFC worden een integraal onderdeel van het fysieke koopgedrag.
  8. Augmented reality wordt belangrijk in de winkel, maar ook voor webshops. Klanten zien zichzelf als een avatar (foto) in de spiegel of op de eigen computer en kunnen zo de kleding “passen”. Leuke kleding wordt met een druk op de knop (bij de spiegel of de computer) gekocht. De artikelen zullen, afgezien van een showmodel, niet meer in de winkel zijn, maar snel geleverd kunnen worden. Binnen 1 uur thuis of in de winkel. Hierdoor is de voorraad in de winkel ook erg beperkt, geen risico voor de winkel en een extra service voor de klant.
  9. Thuislevering wordt usance, op een tijdstip dat het de klant uitkomt, omdat winkels in een winkelgebied nauw met elkaar gaan samenwerken. Nieuwe winkelcentra worden omsloten door virtuele stadmuren, waarbinnen licht (kleurenspots), muziek, video en wi-fi aanwezig zijn voor beleving. Distributie van aankopen in de winkel en op internet wordt gezamenlijk geregeld door het centrum.

10. Er is minder behoefte aan winkeloppervlakte (en winkels). Een krimp van 30% in winkeloppervlakte is zeer aannemelijk. Nieuwe winkels en winkelcentra leiden direct tot het sluiten van andere winkels en winkellocaties!
11. Naast een winkelcentrum (ook stadscentrum) met kleine winkels zullen er ook magazijnen komen in de buurt van winkellokaties met voorraden voor de winkels. Micro leveringen aan winkels en internetkopers kunnen binnen 1 uur plaatsvinden. De voorraden zijn voor rekening en risico van fabrikanten. Dit is een nieuwe groothandelsfunctie (collecteren en distribueren).
12. Winkels integreren internet in de winkel, maar zullen ook een website hebben vaak samen met de andere winkels in het centrum. Internet is ondersteunend aan de winkelpropositie. Webshops zullen ook winkels als servicepunt gaan openen op enkele lokaties in het land als ondersteuning van de webshop. Hierdoor zullen webshops en winkels naar elkaar toegroeien.
13. Gemeentes zullen veel nauwer gaan samenwerken met winkels en meehelpen klanten te motiveren om naar de winkel te komen (ruime openingstijden, veel faciliteiten voor activiteiten en beleving en lage tot geen parkeerkosten en goede bereikbaarheid van winkels). Beseft wordt dat winkels belangrijk zijn voor de leefbaarheid in een bepaalde plaats, dus direct van invloed zijn op de WOZ waarde van panden dus op de belastingopbrengsten van de gemeente.
14. Internetaankopen zullen binnen enkele jaren ongeveer 30%-40% van de non-food verkopen uitmaken (ongeveer 20 miljard aan artikelen). Maar dit wil niet zeggen dat dit de omzet van webwinkels zal zijn. Het wordt steeds moeilijker om internetverkopen te isoleren van winkelverkopen door de integratie van internet in winkels. Internet en IT zullen de basis zijn van retail. Kleine winkels zonder internet en IT hebben vrijwel geen kans om te overleven.
15. Winkeliers moeten de lessen van bioscopen ter harte nemen. De bioscoop werd in de jaren zestig afgeschreven door de massale aankoop van televisietoestellen. Het bioscoopbezoek is nu hoger dan ooit. Een film kijken is een avondje uit. Sound surround geluidssystemen, 3 D films of films van hoge kwaliteit, geluidseffecten en ook lekker samen zijn. Luxe stoelen en een groot scherm. Beleving, verrassing, emotie en gastvrijheid. Winkelen zal steeds meer recreëren worden.
 
De omzet van winkels zullen stijgen door de integratie van internet binnen de winkel, waardoor er een oneindig aanbod geboden kan worden. Alleen artikelen met hoge omzetsnelheid zijn in de winkel. Het andere aanbod gaat via internet, maar wel met snelle levering. Kosten zullen dalen doordat winkels gemiddeld 50%-70% kleiner zullen worden (huisvestingskosten) en een veel kleiner assortiment zullen hebben waar risico over gelopen wordt. Door vaste eindprijzen zal geconcurreerd worden op service, vertrouwen en beleving van de winkel en het winkelcentrum door de toepassing van technologie om zintuigen te activeren. Internet als separaat kanaal zal vooral gekozen worden om het gemak, de service en de mogelijkheid om alles zelf uit te zoeken in de eigen omgeving, maar ook als de artikelen niet in de buurt verkrijgbaar zijn (alhoewel dit een utopie zal zijn door de integratie van internet in de winkel).
Recente indicaties van deze ontwikkeling na schrijven van het boek “red de winkel”
Er is een nieuwe stijl in retail design, een waar de online wereld voldoet aan de fysieke winkel. Een van de meest iconische merken in  retail (Burburry) leidt deze nieuwe fase.
Zodra e-commerce leidt tot een afname  van de traditionele omzet, veranderen winkeliers de winkel en het assortiment, waardoor winkels kleiner worden en worden posters en aanbiedingsborden vervangen door video’s en digital signage. Daarna zullen high-tech POS-systemen gekoppeld worden aan internet en het totale (internet) assortiment) en deze zullen direct toegankelijk zijn voor medewerkers van de klantenservice en rondlopende verkopers met een tablet . Burberry heeft de winkel in Regent Street, gevestigd in een 192-jaar oude Londens gebouw, al als een dergelijke winkel van de toekomst ingericht.
Bron: Stores magazine januari 2013
 

Te koop bij de boekhandel en online http://www.managementboek.nl en www. bol.com
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